Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
GrowthWorks Capital vs Kairos
44th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 56.5% (13 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.8%–74.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 52nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.4 pp
56.5% on 23 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
+4.0 pp
56.5% on 23 deals vs 52.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.4 pp
56.5% on 23 deals vs 68.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.5 pp
54.5% on 22 deals vs 64.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 9.1% (2 of 22). 95% Wilson interval 2.5%–27.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-4.4 pp
9.1% on 22 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeugma Systemszeugmasystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Morega Systemsmorega.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Inimex Pharmaceuticalsinimexpharma.com | 2004 | Yes | 95 | Yes |
| Struttastrutta.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Adnavance Technologiesadnavance.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| GenoLogicsgenologics.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Sysomossysomos.com | 2008 | No | 87 | — |
| Mixpomixpo.com | 2006 | No | 86 | — |
| OneChip Photonicsonechipphotonics.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| General Fusiongeneralfusion.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| PlanetEyeplaneteye.com | 2007 | No | 74 | — |
| CELLFORcellfor.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| SWITCH Materialsswitchmaterials.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| Layer 7 Technologieslayer7.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Sampling Technologiessamplingtechnologies.com | 2010 | No | 52 | — |
| Viron Therapeuticsvironinc.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| Spotwave Wirelessspotwave.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| Librestream Technologies Inc.librestream.com | 2008 | No | 47 | — |
| iMPath Networksimpathnetworks.com | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| D-Wave Systemsdwavesys.com | 2006 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Covaritycovarity.com | 2006 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Sutussutus.com | 2008 | Yes | 22 | — |
| ClearRiskclearrisk.com | 2011 | No | 13 | — |