Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
GSR Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.5% (5 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.6%–86.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.7 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
+6.5 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-8.9 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 71.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.5 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 73.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lashou.comlashou.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Qunar.comqunar.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Network Game Interactionngiworld.com.cn | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| iBoxPayiboxpay.com | 2012 | Yes | 76 | — |
| SunSun Lightingsunsunlighting.com | 2011 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Moonbasamoonbasa.us | 2010 | No | 46 | — |
| C3Nanoc3nano.com | 2011 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Protean Electricproteanelectric.com | 2012 | No | 13 | — |
| M-DAQm-daq.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |