Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
H.I.G. Capital vs Kairos
24th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 47.1% (8 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.2%–69.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 37th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.2 pp
47.1% on 17 deals vs 41.8%
Vs median VC book
-10.1 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 50.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-25.5 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 65.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.6 pp
38.5% on 13 deals vs 64.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 15 of 17 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
56
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 23.5% (4 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 9.6%–47.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+9.0 pp
23.5% on 17 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funambolfunambol.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Locaidloc-aid.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| FanLib | 2006 | No | 97 | — |
| Invisticsinvistics.com | 2003 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Quinnova Pharmaceuticalsquinnova.com | 2006 | Yes | 68 | — |
| HexaTechhexatechinc.com | 2005 | No | 68 | — |
| CYA Technologiescya.com | 2007 | No | 67 | — |
| Nexidianexidia.com | 2006 | No | 49 | — |
| Triad Retail Mediatriadretail.com | 2009 | No | 44 | — |
| Hispanic Media | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| REVSharerevshare.com | 2007 | No | 36 | — |
| EGT | 2006 | No | 34 | — |
| Gemin X Pharmaceuticalsgeminx.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Batanga Mediabatangamedia.com | 2006 | Yes | 22 | — |
| NorthStar Systems Internationalnorthstar.com | 2004 | No | 20 | — |
| Lancopelancope.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| LVL7 Systems | 2002 | Yes | — | — |