Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Harbinger Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.0 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 41.0%
Vs median VC book
-0.9 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 50.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.9 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 63.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-33.1 pp
40.0% on 5 deals vs 73.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.5 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 15.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A10 Networksa10networks.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | — |
| VeriSilicon Holdingsverisilicon.com | 2003 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Splashtopsplashtop.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Optovueoptovue.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| Paxera | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| Centrality Communications | 2005 | No | 30 | — |