Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
HarbourVest Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-3.0 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
-11.4 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 54.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-25.4 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 68.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.9 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 68.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 7 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
32
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.1 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avectraavectra.com | 2007 | No | 68 | — |
| Wayfairwayfair.com | 2011 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Innoveer Solutionsinnoveer.com | 2012 | No | 46 | — |
| MobileAccess Networksmobileaccess.com | 2005 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Panda Securitypandasecurity.com | 2007 | No | 17 | — |
| EPAC Software Technologiesepacst.com | 2008 | No | 12 | — |
| Axerra Networksaxerra.com | 2005 | Yes | 4 | — |
| eTapestryetapestry.com | 2000 | No | — | — |
| Integrated Development Enterprise | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| WeatherBugweatherbug.com | 2000 | No | — | — |