Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Harrison Metal Capital vs Kairos
43rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (16 of 28 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–73.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 50th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.1 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
+0.7 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 56.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.9 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 72.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.2 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 66.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
28
Mean model percentile
81
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 52.2% (12 of 23). 95% Wilson interval 33.0%–70.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+40.7 pp
52.2% on 23 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
28 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polyvorepolyvore.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Bloomspotbloomspot.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| B-Stock Solutionsbstocksolutions.com | 2009 | No | 97 | — |
| Recurlyrecurly.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| FanSnapfansnap.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| threadsythreadsy.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Zoodleszoodles.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| DocVersedocverse.com | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| Wantfulwantful.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| vLinevline.com | 2012 | No | 92 | — |
| nWaynway.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Plastic Jungleplasticjungle.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| StackMobstackmob.com | 2011 | No | 91 | — |
| Joyusjoyus.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Euclid Analyticseuclidanalytics.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Metaresolvermetaresolver.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| Good Eggsgoodeggs.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| YellowDog Mediayardsellr.com | 2010 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Mineusemine.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| card.iocard.io | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Lumos Labslumosity.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Peelpeel.com | 2009 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Zentergoogleblog.blogspot.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Manymoonmanymoon.com | 2009 | No | 59 | — |
| AltSchoolaltschool.com | 2013 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Mixer Labstownme.com | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Blockboardblockboard.org | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| PlayCrafterplaycrafter.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| Cover Lockscreencoverscreen.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |