Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Hart Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-29.1 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 45.7%
Vs median VC book
-41.8 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 58.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-57.7 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 74.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-54.9 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 71.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
39
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–43.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-11.2 pp
0.0% on 5 deals vs 11.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundle Buybundlebuy.com | 2009 | No | 63 | — |
| Crown in Towncrownintown.com | 2010 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Million Dollar Earthmilliondollarearth.com | 2011 | No | 53 | — |
| globa.lygloba.ly | 2010 | No | 35 | — |
| Everything Clubeverythingclub.org | 2010 | No | 12 | — |
| Textádotextado.com | 2010 | No | 12 | — |