Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Hasso Plattner Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.8% (7 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.1%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.3 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 45.5%
Vs median VC book
-2.8 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 56.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.6 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 72.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.5 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 66.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
56
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.0 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KnowledgeTreeknowledgetree.com | 2009 | No | 88 | — |
| hiogihiogi.de | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| HitFox Grouphitfoxgroup.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| BrightView Systemsbrightview-sys.com | 2009 | No | 81 | — |
| OpenSynergyopensynergy.com | 2008 | No | 80 | — |
| Smeetsmeet.com | 2006 | Yes | 62 | — |
| PlaytestCloudplaytestcloud.com | 2012 | No | 57 | — |
| MONOQImonoqi.com | 2012 | Yes | 51 | — |
| datangodatango.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| SmApper Technologiessmapper.com | 2007 | Yes | 34 | — |
| INCHRONinchron.com | 2011 | No | 15 | — |
| RIB Softwarerib-software.com | 2010 | Yes | 3 | — |
| VersionEyeversioneye.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| GoEurogoeuro.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |