Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
HealthCare Ventures vs Kairos
31st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.3% (8 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.1%–75.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 47th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.4 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+0.2 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.4 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.7 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 64.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 7.7% (1 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 1.4%–33.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.2 pp
7.7% on 13 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor Therapeuticsanchortx.com | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| Sequoia Pharmaceuticalssequoiapharmaceuticals.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Promediorpromedior.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| VaxInnatevaxinnate.com | 2004 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Xanodynexanodyne.com | 2004 | No | 82 | — |
| Catalyst Biosciencescatalystbiosciences.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Ascent Therapeuticsascentrx.com | 2007 | No | 81 | — |
| Theraclone Sciencestheraclone-sciences.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Foldrx Pharmaceuticalsfoldrx.com | 2010 | No | 60 | — |
| Radius Healthradiuspharm.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| PharmAthenepharmathene.com | 2009 | No | 58 | — |
| Seahorse Bioscienceseahorsebio.com | 2009 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Trevenatrevenainc.com | 2008 | Yes | 40 | — |
| CellNovocellnovo.com | 2011 | No | 35 | — |
| Proteostasis Therapeuticsproteostasis.com | 2008 | No | 7 | — |