Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Helion Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (10 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.4%–88.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.2 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+16.5 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 54.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.4 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 71.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+3.4 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 68.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 45.5% (5 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 21.3%–72.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+33.9 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 11.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PubMaticpubmatic.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Azure Powerazurepower.com | 2008 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Komli Mediakomli.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| BlueStacksbluestacks.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Exclusivelyexclusively.in | 2010 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Dhinganadhingana.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| TaxiForSure.comtaxiforsure.com | 2012 | Yes | 58 | — |
| LetsBuy.comletsbuy.com | 2011 | No | 57 | — |
| Shubham Housing Development Finance Companyshubham.co | 2012 | Yes | 55 | — |
| hoopos.comhoopos.com | 2011 | No | 50 | — |
| MakeMyTrip.commakemytrip.com | 2006 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Hurix Systems Privatehurix.com | 2007 | No | 38 | — |
| SMS GupShupsmsgupshup.com | 2010 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Global Talent Trackgttconnect.com | 2009 | No | 13 | — |