Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Hercules Technology Growth Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-11.3 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 44.6%
Vs median VC book
-25.2 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 58.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-39.7 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 73.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-35.0 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 68.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
39
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+36.9 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadoinkkadoink.com | 2008 | No | 83 | — |
| RazorGatorrazorgator.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| PolyMedixpolymedix.com | 2010 | No | 59 | — |
| InfoLogixinfologix.com | 2010 | No | 47 | — |
| Rockwell Medicalrockwellmed.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Omrix Biopharmaceuticalsomrix.com | 2005 | No | 28 | — |
| Transcept Pharmaceuticalstransoral.com | 2007 | No | 9 | — |
| Unifyunify.ai | 2010 | No | 9 | — |
| PSS Systemspss-systems.com | 2007 | Yes | 9 | — |
| Intellijectintelliject.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |