Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
High Line Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.0 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 45.4%
Vs median VC book
+13.4 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 58.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.6 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 74.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.7 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 76.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foodspottingfoodspotting.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| HowAboutWehowaboutwe.com | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Fashismfashism.com | 2010 | No | 86 | — |
| 500px500px.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| LayerVaultlayervault.com | 2012 | No | 73 | — |
| Aereoaereo.com | 2011 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Incident Technologiesincidenttech.com | 2011 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Edition01edition01.com | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |