Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Primary Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (8 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–86.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.3 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 46.4%
Vs median VC book
+6.7 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 60.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-8.8 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 75.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.7 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 69.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+43.4 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividedivide.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Reonomyreonomy.com | 2013 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Apprendaapprenda.com | 2009 | Yes | 93 | — |
| VYouvyou.com | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| Kohortkohort.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Zipmarkzipmark.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| MakeSpacemakespace.com | 2013 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Pump Audiopumpaudio.com | 2007 | No | 63 | — |
| Applied NanoWorksauterrainc.com | 2006 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Worktopiaworktopia.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Allworxallworx.com | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Synaptic Digitalsynapticdigital.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Handshakehandshake-app.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |