Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Highland Capital Partners vs Kairos
98th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (57 of 76 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.2%–83.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 84th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.6 pp
75.0% on 76 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
+20.7 pp
74.7% on 75 deals vs 54.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.4 pp
74.7% on 75 deals vs 69.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+5.0 pp
72.7% on 66 deals vs 67.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 75 of 76 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
72
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.9% (22 of 58). 95% Wilson interval 26.6%–50.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.4 pp
37.9% on 58 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
76 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenSkyopensky.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Quattro Wirelessquattrowireless.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| PerkStreet Financial CLOSEDperkstreet.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| VIVAvivame.cn | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| SessionMsessionm.com | 2011 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Rent the Runwayrenttherunway.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| iZumi Bioizumibio.com | 2009 | No | 97 | — |
| BAROnovabaronova.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Bit9bit9.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Handyhandy.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Disconnectdisconnect.me | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Gemvaragemvara.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Virtual Computervirtualcomputer.com | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Pixablepixable.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Predictive Biosciencespredictivebiosci.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Ocarina Networksocarinanetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Movik Networksmovik.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Hangout Industrieshangout.net | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Glasses Directglassesdirect.co.uk | 2009 | No | 91 | — |
| QD Visioncoloriq.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Vibe Solutions Group | 2006 | No | 89 | — |
| ExaGrid Systemsexagrid.com | 2003 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Desktonedesktone.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| iPierianipierian.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Kyruuskyruus.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Beijing NetentSecnetentsec.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| VYouvyou.com | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| StreamBase Systemsstreambase.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Goinggoing.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Aviategetaviate.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Radiospire Networks | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| CCTV Wireless | 2007 | No | 83 | — |
| Iddictioniddiction.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| PhotoBoxphotobox.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Top10 Media | 2006 | No | 79 | — |
| BetterFit Technologies (Defunct)betterfit.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| RedBrick Healthredbrickhealth.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| ANDA Networksandanetworks.com | 2006 | No | 76 | — |
| GoodRxgoodrx.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Syntropharmasyntropharma.com | 2006 | No | 74 | — |
| Turbineturbine.com | 2003 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Innovative Siliconinnovativesilicon.com | 2004 | Yes | 71 | — |
| CafeMomcafemom.com | 2007 | Yes | 70 | — |
| BlueTarp Financialbluetarp.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| StyleFeederstylefeeder.com | 2007 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Gigamongigamon.com | 2010 | No | 68 | — |
| VMTurbovmturbo.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| OneSpaceonespace.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| Vertica Systemsvertica.com | 2005 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Aereoaereo.com | 2011 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Cash4Goldcash4gold.com | 2008 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Hyperion Therapeuticshyperiontx.com | 2007 | Yes | 61 | — |
| SetMediaset.tv | 2011 | Yes | 57 | — |
| BARRX Medicalbarrx.com | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| Tatara Systemstatarasystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Smooth-Stonesmooth-stone.com | 2010 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Biosyntechbiosyntech.com | 2009 | No | 54 | — |
| Coremetricscoremetrics.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Imprivataimprivata.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Mangrove Systemsmangrovesystems.com | 2003 | No | 50 | — |
| Caserocasero.com | 2004 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Lemonwiselemonwi.se | 2011 | No | 48 | — |
| Anchovi Labsanchovi.com | 2012 | No | 47 | — |
| Virtual Iron Softwarevirtualiron.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| PA Semi | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| SmartLink Radio Networks | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| DAVIDsTEAdavidstea.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |
| Amp'd Mobileampd.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Gemvara.comgemvara.com | 2008 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Quigoquigo.com | 2004 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Simpler Networkssimplernetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Trupaniontrupanion.com | 2011 | Yes | 16 | — |
| ALOHAaloha.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Gotuitgotuit.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Insignia Technologiesinsigniatechnologies.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| vArmourvarmour.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Etaoshietaoshi.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Cloudtopcloudtop.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |