Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Hillsven Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.7 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 45.4%
Vs median VC book
+1.6 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 55.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.0 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 71.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.1 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 66.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
87
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.3 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 12.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threadboxthreadbox.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Expensifyuse.expensify.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Verixverix.com | 2006 | No | 91 | — |
| Bleacher Reportbleacherreport.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Livefyrelivefyre.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Fabkidsfabkids.com | 2012 | No | 77 | — |
| Ravnravn.com | 2011 | No | 75 | — |