Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
HLM Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.8% (9 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.3%–94.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.6 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 43.3%
Vs median VC book
+29.4 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+13.9 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+27.2 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 62.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
46
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (2 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 5.1%–47.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.8 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanovia Corporationsanovia.com | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| TyRx Pharmatyrx.com | 2010 | No | 55 | — |
| Seahorse Bioscienceseahorsebio.com | 2009 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Summit Microelectronicssummitmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Phreesiaphreesia.com | 2006 | Yes | 49 | — |
| MedVentivemedventive.com | 2006 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Medicalismedicalis.com | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Casenetcasenetinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Silverlink Communicationssilverlink.com | 2004 | No | 36 | — |
| Satietysatiety.com | 2007 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Pathway Medical Technologiespathwaymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 12 | — |