Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
HV Holtzbrinck Ventures vs Kairos
12th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 35.0% (7 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.1%–56.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 20th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-7.8 pp
35.0% on 20 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
-18.5 pp
35.0% on 20 deals vs 53.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-33.8 pp
35.0% on 20 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-32.7 pp
31.6% on 19 deals vs 64.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 41.2% (7 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 21.6%–64.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+28.8 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woogawooga.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| playnikplaynik.de | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| AdScaleadscale.de | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| GameDuellgameduell.com | 2003 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Affinitas GmbHaffinitas.de | 2009 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Gigalocalgigalocal.de | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| Yasuuyasuu.de | 2011 | No | 74 | — |
| DaWandaen.dawanda.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| Outfitteryoutfittery.de | 2012 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Bookya.debookya.de | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| brands4friendsbrands4friends.de | 2007 | No | 61 | — |
| WestWingwestwing.de | 2012 | Yes | 48 | — |
| erentoerento.com | 2007 | No | 48 | — |
| Fashion For Homefashionforhome.com | 2012 | No | 46 | — |
| Zalandozalando.com | 2010 | Yes | 42 | — |
| My-Hammermy-hammer.de | 2008 | No | 41 | — |
| Deutsche Startupsdeutsche-startups.de | 2007 | No | 29 | — |
| Citydeal.decitydeal.de | 2010 | No | 21 | — |
| Newtronnewtron.net | 2005 | No | 15 | — |
| Epulsepuls.pl | 2007 | No | 14 | — |