Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Horizons Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (8 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–86.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+19.4 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 47.3%
Vs median VC book
+5.4 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 61.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.3 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 77.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-7.3 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 74.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 60.0% (3 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–88.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+48.6 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touttout.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| inviinvi.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Tempo AItempo.ai | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Destidesti.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| RFinityrfinity.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| Spotify | 2008 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Preen.Mepreen.me | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| Summlysummly.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Guardtimeguardtime.com | 2010 | No | 54 | — |
| HowDohow.do | 2012 | No | 32 | — |
| Meteo-Logicmeteo-logic.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Bitstripsbitstrips.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| LOCK8lock8.me | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Rubikloudrubikloud.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |