Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Hub Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (4 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 13.8%–60.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 49.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.2 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 49.5%
Vs median VC book
-30.4 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 63.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-43.7 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 77.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-44.9 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 78.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share Practicesharepractice.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| CheckInOn.Mecheckinon.me | 2012 | No | 73 | — |
| StreetOwlstreetowl.com | 2012 | No | 61 | — |
| Givkwikgivkwik.com | 2012 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Project Repatprojectrepat.com | 2012 | No | 47 | — |
| SunFundersunfunder.com | 2013 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Acopioacopio.org | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| Design Innovations for Infants and Mothers Everywhere (DIIME)diime.org | 2012 | No | 41 | — |
| 2NDNATURE2ndnaturellc.com | 2013 | No | 21 | — |
| Africa's Talkingafricastalking.com | 2012 | No | 20 | — |
| Upshiftupshiftcars.com | 2012 | No | 12 | — |
| Eko Devicesekodevices.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |