Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IA Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 69.2% (9 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.4%–87.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.3 pp
69.2% on 13 deals vs 46.0%
Vs median VC book
+11.0 pp
69.2% on 13 deals vs 58.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.7 pp
69.2% on 13 deals vs 72.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.1 pp
69.2% on 13 deals vs 75.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
91
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (1 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–47.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.3 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 11.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trade Deskthetradedesk.com | 2010 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Signifydsignifyd.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| BillGuardbillguard.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| SavingStarsavingstar.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Recorded Futurerecordedfuture.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| MyCityWaymycityway.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Drawn to Scaledrawntoscale.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Metamarketsmetamarkets.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Kinsakinsahealth.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Kohortkohort.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| TraceVectortracevector.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Consumrconsumr.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| NewsCrednewscred.com | 2010 | Yes | 70 | — |