Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IDF CAPITAL vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 0.0% (0 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–25.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-43.5 pp
0.0% on 11 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
-52.8 pp
0.0% on 11 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-67.2 pp
0.0% on 11 deals vs 67.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-66.2 pp
0.0% on 11 deals vs 66.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (2 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 5.1%–47.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.5 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digicompaniondigicompanion.com | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Abaxiaabaxia.com | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| N-Sidedn-sided.com | 2006 | No | 71 | — |
| SecurActivesecuractive.net | 2007 | No | 62 | — |
| PubliAtispubliatis.com | 2009 | No | 46 | — |
| GoAlbertamisw.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| Open CSopencs.net | 2006 | No | 34 | — |
| Pickup Servicespickup-services.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| InterAtlasinteratlas.fr | 2007 | No | 30 | — |
| Terres et Terroirsterre-terroirs.com | 2005 | No | 19 | — |
| Wysiwygwysiwyg.net | 2006 | No | 10 | — |