Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IDG Ventures vs Kairos
18th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 45.0% (9 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.8%–65.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 30th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-0.5 pp
45.0% on 20 deals vs 45.5%
Vs median VC book
-12.7 pp
45.0% on 20 deals vs 57.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-28.5 pp
45.0% on 20 deals vs 73.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.6 pp
45.0% on 20 deals vs 70.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 45.5% (5 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 21.3%–72.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+32.5 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| i2wei2we.com | 2008 | No | 90 | — |
| IGGigg.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| MindMeldexpectlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| ParkMe, Inc.parkme.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Zivame.comaskforoffer.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Funziofunzio.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Empower Interactiveempower-interactive.com | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| We Heart Itweheartit.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Iddictioniddiction.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Vaultus Mobilevaultus.com | 2008 | No | 78 | — |
| Flowdockflowdock.com | 2011 | No | 71 | — |
| BlueTarp Financialbluetarp.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| Sourcebitssourcebits.com | 2011 | No | 69 | — |
| ThirdLovethirdlove.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| FirstCry.comfirstcry.com | 2012 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Testin Technologiestestin.io | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| SurDocsurdoc.com | 2011 | No | 65 | — |
| Level 5 Networkslevel5networks.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| XRONetxronet.co.kr | 2008 | No | 36 | — |
| Theramyt Novobiologicstheramyt.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| HDmessaginghdmessaging.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| UXPinuxpin.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |