Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IDG Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 45.5% (5 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.3%–72.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.6 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
-10.2 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 55.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-26.7 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 72.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-24.6 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 70.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (2 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 11.8%–76.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+27.5 pp
40.0% on 5 deals vs 12.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linekonglinekong.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Mobivoxmobivox.com | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| Funziofunzio.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| App Annieappannie.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Minusminus.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Ihaveu.comihaveu.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| Baifendianbaifendian.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| iMedia Comunicazioneimediacomunicazione.it | 2012 | No | 63 | — |
| Baofengbaofeng.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |
| Jiubang Digital Technology Co.3g.cn | 2010 | No | 20 | — |
| Animocaanimoca.com | 2011 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Mizhe.commizhe.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |