Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Ignition Partners vs Kairos
89th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.1% (32 of 45 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.6%–82.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 80th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.5 pp
71.1% on 45 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
+17.9 pp
70.5% on 44 deals vs 52.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.2 pp
70.5% on 44 deals vs 67.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-0.5 pp
66.7% on 39 deals vs 67.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 44 of 45 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
44
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
55/5 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.8% (12 of 39). 95% Wilson interval 18.6%–46.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.0 pp
30.8% on 39 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
45 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuuitycontinuuity.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Bromiumbromium.com | 2011 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Judys Bookjudysbook.com | 2004 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| mFoundrymfoundry.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Keaskeas.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Pure Networkspurenetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Full Capture Solutions | 2004 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Yeelionkuwo.cn | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Cloudmarkcloudmark.com | 2003 | Yes | 96 | Yes |
| Appatureappature.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Iron.ioiron.io | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| eHi Car Rental1hai.cn | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Xamarinxamarin.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Prosodicprosodic.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| Tier 3tier3.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Klir Technologiesklir.com | 2005 | No | 85 | — |
| Referlyrefer.ly | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Jobsterjobster.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| ServiceMeshservicemesh.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| AdXposeadxpose.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| PaxVaxpaxvax.com | 2009 | Yes | 77 | — |
| FiREappsfireapps.com | 2008 | No | 77 | — |
| Skytapskytap.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Bonanzabonanza.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| Twisted Pair Solutionstwistpair.com | 2006 | No | 73 | — |
| Teranodeteranode.com | 2005 | No | 72 | — |
| AdmitOne Securityadmitonesecurity.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Vayusa | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| Centeris Corporation | 2005 | Yes | 66 | — |
| InstallFreeinstallfree.com | 2008 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Entellium | 2007 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Lalalala.com | 2005 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Azaleosazaleos.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Talysttalyst.com | 2006 | Yes | 44 | — |
| globalscholar.comglobalscholar.com | 2008 | No | 42 | — |
| Lockdown Networkslockdownnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Moz, Inc.moz.com | 2007 | No | 40 | — |
| Blowtorchblowtorch.com | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| Modiv Mediamodivmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 30 | — |
| SEVEN Networksseven.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| SourceLabssourcelabs.com | 2006 | No | 26 | — |
| Airbiquityairbiquity.com | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| Melodeonutsie.com | 2007 | No | 19 | — |
| RLX Technologies | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| TellWisetellwise.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| RadioFrameradioframenetworks.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |