Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Illinois Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (4 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.0%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.2 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 40.4%
Vs median VC book
+15.0 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 51.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
0.0 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.6 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 58.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+19.7 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sempriussemprius.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| ShareThissharethis.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| TetraVitae Biosciencetetravitae.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Radio One Llamaonellama.com | 2007 | No | 80 | — |
| MOBITRAC | 2005 | No | 65 | — |
| RiverGlass, Inc.riverglassinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |