Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Incubate Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (5 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.6%–97.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+32.9 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 50.4%
Vs median VC book
+17.5 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 65.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.7 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 79.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+6.2 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 77.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
4
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ticketstreetticketstreet.jp | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Prosbee Inc.booklap.com | 2012 | Yes | 54 | — |
| crewwcreww.me | 2012 | Yes | 54 | — |
| STORYS.JPstorys.jp | 2012 | No | 22 | — |
| Schooschoo.jp | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Pricebook Co., Ltd.pricebook.co.id | 2013 | Yes | — | — |