Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Index Ventures vs Kairos
79th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 64.4% (65 of 101 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 54.6%–73.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 65th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+19.4 pp
64.4% on 101 deals vs 45.0%
Vs median VC book
+7.6 pp
64.4% on 101 deals vs 56.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.8 pp
64.4% on 101 deals vs 72.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.1 pp
65.3% on 95 deals vs 70.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
98
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
76/7 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 38.0% (27 of 71). 95% Wilson interval 27.6%–49.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.6 pp
38.0% on 71 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
101 labeled follow-on deals, 12 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| doubleTwistdoubletwist.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| UberMediaubermedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| AlertMealertme.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| sezmisezmi.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Dimdimdimdim.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Versartisversartis.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Pathpath.me | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Shapewaysshapeways.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Cloud.comcloud.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| Certesscertess.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Keynoirkeynoir.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| Snaptalentsnaptalent.com | 2008 | No | 97 | — |
| StorSimplestorsimple.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Mobissimomobissimo.com | 2004 | No | 96 | Yes |
| Just Eatjust-eat.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Everpixeverpix.com | 2011 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Spot Runnerspotrunner.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Metromilemetromile.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| OpenXopenx.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| DJZdjz.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Glasses Directglassesdirect.co.uk | 2009 | No | 91 | — |
| The Climate Corporationclimate.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Big Switch Networksbigswitch.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Flipboardflipboard.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Brit + Cobrit.co | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| onefinestayonefinestay.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Netlognetlog.com | 2007 | No | 86 | — |
| King.comking.com | 2005 | No | 86 | — |
| OpenBuildingsopenbuildings.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Pentahopentaho.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Sequentasequenta.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Frontbackfrontback.me | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| FuzeBoxfuzebox.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Tripbirdstripbirds.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Telegent Systemstelegentsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Foodilyfoodily.com | 2010 | Yes | 84 | — |
| VirtualLogixvirtuallogix.com | 2004 | No | 83 | — |
| HouseTriphousetrip.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Gidsygidsy.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Tonaratonara.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| FilesX | 2003 | No | 81 | — |
| Geckoboardgeckoboard.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Lightboxlightbox.com | 2011 | No | 80 | — |
| PhotoBoxphotobox.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Snapguidesnapguide.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| CatchFreecatchfree.com | 2011 | No | 79 | — |
| Abe's Marketabesmarket.com | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Nasty Galnastygal.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| SpinX Technologiesspinx-technologies.com | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| iZettleizettle.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Stylistpickstylistpick.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| AllPeers | 2006 | No | 76 | — |
| Joostjoost.com | 2007 | No | 76 | — |
| Mind Candymindcandy.com | 2006 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Drivydrivy.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| MOO.COMmoo.com | 2006 | No | 72 | — |
| Innovative Siliconinnovativesilicon.com | 2004 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Go Try It Ongotryiton.com | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Stardollstardoll.com | 2006 | Yes | 71 | — |
| ProFibrixprofibrix.com | 2007 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Last.fmlast.fm | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Amen.getamen.com | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Funxional Therapeuticsfunxionaltherapeutics.com | 2010 | No | 65 | — |
| Imbera Electronicsimberacorp.com | 2009 | No | 65 | — |
| Frengofrengo.com | 2006 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Zend Technologieszend.com | 2004 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Mind-NRGmind-nrg.com | 2010 | Yes | 61 | — |
| CipherCloudciphercloud.com | 2011 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Algoliaalgolia.com | 2013 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Rebtelrebtel.com | 2006 | No | 59 | — |
| Netvibesnetvibes.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Captain Traincaptaintrain.com | 2012 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Diartis Pharmaceuticalsdiartispharma.com | 2011 | No | 56 | — |
| Justworksjustworks.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Maker's Rowmakersrow.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Betfairbetfair.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Evolven Softwareevolven.com | 2011 | No | 53 | — |
| Artimiartimi.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Qt Softwareqt.nokia.com | 2005 | No | 52 | — |
| Blue Bottle Coffeebluebottlecoffee.com | 2012 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Privaliaprivalia.com | 2010 | Yes | 43 | — |
| GenSight Biologicsgensight-biologics.com | 2013 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Bestofmedia Groupbestofmedia.com | 2008 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Glustergluster.org | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| GlycoVaxynglycovaxyn.com | 2006 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Egaletegalet.com | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| Novusnovus.com | 2013 | No | 32 | — |
| Clipboardclipboardworks.com | 2011 | No | 29 | — |
| OANDA Corporationoanda.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| SecureWavesecurewave.com | 2005 | No | 26 | — |
| SourceLabssourcelabs.com | 2006 | No | 26 | — |
| Milestone Systemsmilestonesys.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |
| Reality Jockeyrjdj.me | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| Molecular Partnersmolecularpartners.com | 2007 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Fonfon.com | 2006 | Yes | 23 | — |
| BeamExpress | 2003 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Squarespacesquarespace.com | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| FREEjit | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| Yubyub.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| basnobasno.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| OncoEthixoncoethix.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Koalitykoalitycode.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Bergbergcloud.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| XO1xo1.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Wool and the Gangwoolandthegang.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Supersolidsupersolid.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| TheFamilythefamily.co | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| The Business of Fashionbusinessoffashion.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| NumberFournumberfour.eu | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Snapplisnappli.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Prescription Eyewear | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Auxmoneyauxmoney.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Radraaad.fr | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |