Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Infinity Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.0 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 45.0%
Vs median VC book
-4.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 54.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 70.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 64.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.8 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 11.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rekoorekoo.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Chiral Questchiralquest.com | 2009 | No | 88 | — |
| OrderWithMewith.me | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Beijing Moca World Technologymocaworld.cn | 2010 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Oberon Mediaoberon-media.com | 2008 | Yes | 34 | — |
| ReDent Novaredent.co.il | 2006 | No | 33 | — |
| Solorein Technologysolorein.com | 2012 | No | 27 | — |
| DCITS | 2008 | No | 2 | — |
| Muse & Comuseco.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |