Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Inflection Point Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 39.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.2 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 39.9%
Vs median VC book
+8.3 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 48.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-6.2 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 63.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-27.4 pp
40.0% on 5 deals vs 67.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+14.7 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelis Security Systemsfidelissecurity.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| PermissionTVpermissiontv.com | 2004 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Synchris | 2005 | No | 48 | — |
| Triumfanttriumfant.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| sentitO Networks | 2003 | Yes | 43 | — |
| SkillSurveyskillsurvey.com | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| Searchandise Commercesearchandise.net | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |