Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
iNovia Capital vs Kairos
40th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 58.1% (18 of 31 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.8%–73.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 48th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.5 pp
58.1% on 31 deals vs 47.5%
Vs median VC book
-2.4 pp
58.1% on 31 deals vs 60.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.9 pp
58.1% on 31 deals vs 75.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.5 pp
58.1% on 31 deals vs 67.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
30
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 22.2% (4 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 9.0%–45.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.3 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
31 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urgent Careerurgentcareer.com | 2009 | No | 97 | — |
| Standout Jobsstandoutjobs.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| Tynttynt.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Woozworldwoozworld.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Lenddolenddo.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Peraso Technologiesperasotech.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| LegiTime Technologieslegitimetechnologies.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Mitre Media Corp.mitremedia.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Changochango.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Crowdbasecrowdbase.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Granifygranify.com | 2012 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Tribal Novatribalnova.com | 2009 | No | 69 | — |
| Tulip Retailtulip.io | 2013 | No | 67 | — |
| QuantuModeling | 2005 | No | 57 | — |
| Allocadiaallocadia.com | 2013 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Airborne Mobileairbornemobile.com | 2009 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Collectivecollective.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| ReflexPhotonicsreflexphotonics.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Busbudbusbud.com | 2013 | Yes | 50 | — |
| CoolIT Systemscoolitsystems.com | 2009 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Drivewyzedrivewyze.com | 2013 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Lightspeed POSlightspeedpos.com | 2012 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Allostera Pharmaallostera.com | 2009 | No | 42 | — |
| Luxury Retreatsluxuryretreats.com | 2012 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Bomodabomoda.com | 2012 | No | 40 | — |
| Mimetogen Pharmaceuticalsmimetogen.com | 2005 | No | 38 | — |
| Airborne Technologyairborne-technologycentre.com | 2009 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Gamerizon Studiogamerizon.com | 2011 | No | 23 | — |
| Callio Technologiescallio.com | 2005 | No | 22 | — |
| Nanoledge | 2008 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Presslypressly.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Domino Magazinedominomag.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Dissolvedissolve.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |