Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Insight Venture Partners vs Kairos
58th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.9% (22 of 35 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.3%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 60th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.6 pp
62.9% on 35 deals vs 46.2%
Vs median VC book
+1.9 pp
61.8% on 34 deals vs 59.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.8 pp
61.8% on 34 deals vs 74.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.6 pp
63.3% on 30 deals vs 73.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 34 of 35 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
32
Mean model percentile
44
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 38.9% (7 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 20.3%–61.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+25.1 pp
38.9% on 18 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
35 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Photobucketphotobucket.com | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| HauteLookhautelook.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Astaroastaro.com | 2003 | Yes | 90 | — |
| CTSpacectspace.eu | 2006 | No | 87 | — |
| FuzeBoxfuzebox.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Hotel Urbanohotelurbano.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Konykony.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| NetIQnetiq.com | 2005 | No | 73 | — |
| 6Waves6waves.com | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| DGITmediamind.com | 2003 | No | 70 | — |
| Cherwell Softwarecherwellsoftware.com | 2012 | Yes | 48 | — |
| PHD Virtual Technologiesphdvirtual.com | 2011 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Pluralsightpluralsight.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Ozsaleozsale.com.au | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| Acronisacronis.com | 2004 | No | 35 | — |
| ExactTargetexacttarget.com | 2004 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Fanaticsfanaticsinc.com | 2012 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Parallelsparallels.com | 2005 | No | 31 | — |
| Zumba Fitnesszumba.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |
| GenArtsgenarts.com | 2008 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Drillinginfodrillinginfo.com | 2012 | Yes | 28 | — |
| SolarWindssolarwinds.com | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Digital Harbordharbor.com | 2005 | No | 23 | — |
| Veeam Softwareveeam.com | 2013 | No | 22 | — |
| Jagexjagex.com | 2011 | No | 22 | — |
| Studio Modernastudio-moderna.com | 2011 | No | 20 | — |
| MV Sistemasmv.com.br | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| Mediaspectrummediaspectrum.net | 2013 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Kaseyakaseya.com | 2013 | Yes | 18 | — |
| COADEcoade.com | 2007 | No | 15 | — |
| B2B-Centerb2b-center.ru | 2012 | Yes | 10 | — |
| Anaquaanaqua.com | 2013 | Yes | 6 | — |
| SR Labssrtechlabs.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| eEyeeeye.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| FilmTrackfilmtrack.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| AirWatchair-watch.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Card Scanning Solutionscard-reader.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |