Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Integral Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.1 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 40.9%
Vs median VC book
-0.5 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 50.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.0 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 65.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-31.7 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 65.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
48
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+36.1 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netbooksnetbooks.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Aragon Surgicalaragonsurgical.com | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| LogMeInlogmeininc.com | 2004 | Yes | 72 | — |
| AudienceScienceaudiencescience.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Lockdown Networkslockdownnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Health Hero Network(Bosch Healthcare)healthbuddy.com | 2006 | No | 38 | — |
| TherOxtherox.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| CareDxxdx.com | 2004 | Yes | 3 | — |
| Blue Nilebluenile.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Drugstore.comdrugstore.com | 2001 | No | — | — |