Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Intel Capital vs Kairos
37th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.3% (83 of 165 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.8%–57.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 40th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.4 pp
50.3% on 165 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
-3.7 pp
50.6% on 160 deals vs 54.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.7 pp
50.6% on 160 deals vs 69.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-19.4 pp
48.3% on 151 deals vs 67.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 160 of 165 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
156
Mean model percentile
40
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.1% (25 of 131). 95% Wilson interval 13.3%–26.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.4 pp
19.1% on 131 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
165 labeled follow-on deals, 10 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Airshipurbanairship.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Arch Rock Corporationarchrock.com | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Althea Systemsaltheasystems.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| Transperatranspera.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Soonrsoonr.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Collaxcollax.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| SignaCertsignacert.com | 2005 | No | 89 | — |
| LikeIt.comlikeit.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| ArchPro Design Automation | 2006 | No | 87 | — |
| WSO2wso2.com | 2006 | No | 87 | — |
| XenSource | 2005 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Convey Computerconveycomputer.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Bragsterbragster.com | 2008 | No | 84 | — |
| Revolution Analyticsrevolutionanalytics.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Ozmo Devicesozmodevices.com | 2006 | No | 83 | — |
| Grid Netgrid-net.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| InSync Softwareinsyncinfo.com | 2006 | No | 80 | — |
| Clear Shape Technologiesclearshape.com | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| Pando Networkspandonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Voxer LLCvoxer.com | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| InVisage Technologiesinvisage.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Parade Technologiesparadetech.com | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| Viridity Energyviridityenergy.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Lumidigmlumidigm.com | 2005 | No | 76 | — |
| NewAernewaer.com | 2012 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Punchbowlpunchbowl.com | 2007 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Delve Networksdelvenetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Olaworksolaworks.com | 2007 | No | 74 | — |
| Azure Solutionsazuresolutions.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| JAM Technologies | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Engana Ptyengana.com | 2005 | No | 65 | — |
| GainSpangainspan.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Apogee Photonics | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| Hubspanhubspan.com | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| Speaktoitspeaktoit.com | 2012 | Yes | 61 | — |
| AdsIt91adv.com | 2007 | No | 61 | — |
| MobiAppsmobiapps.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| Silistixsilistix.com | 2007 | No | 59 | — |
| OpenFeintopenfeint.com | 2010 | No | 58 | — |
| Mirantismirantis.com | 2013 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Aventeonaventeon.com | 2004 | Yes | 57 | — |
| TriCiphertricipher.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Negevtech | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Mirics Semiconductormirics.com | 2007 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Vativ Technologies | 2005 | Yes | 55 | — |
| AdaptiveMobileadaptive-mobile.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| iControl Networksicontrol.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Financial Information Network & Operations Pvtfino.co.in | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Wortalwortalinc.com | 2009 | Yes | 52 | — |
| OpenClovisopenclovis.com | 2005 | No | 52 | — |
| Mobixell Networksmobixell.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| GigaSpacesgigaspaces.com | 2005 | Yes | 51 | — |
| NexPlanarnexplanar.com | 2008 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Vostuvostu.com | 2008 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Fashion.mefashion.me | 2012 | No | 50 | — |
| CrowdStarcrowdstar.com | 2011 | Yes | 49 | — |
| OpSourceopsource.net | 2006 | Yes | 48 | — |
| 4tiitoo GmbH4tiitoo.com | 2011 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Happiest Minds Technolgoieshappiestminds.com | 2011 | No | 47 | — |
| Coqueluxcoquelux.com.br | 2012 | No | 47 | — |
| Virtual Iron Softwarevirtualiron.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Calpurnia Corporation | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Availigent | 2006 | No | 45 | — |
| Enigmatecenigmatec.com | 2004 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Phoenix New Mediaifeng.com | 2009 | No | 44 | — |
| JackBejackbe.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Packetmotionpacketmotion.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Sotera Wirelesssoterawireless.com | 2008 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Reloaded Games, Inc.reloadedinc.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Telligent Systemstelligent.com | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| BlueShift Technologiesblueshifttech.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Neusoft Groupneusoft.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| iovationiovation.com | 2008 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Accertifyaccertify.com | 2008 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Atricaatrica.com | 2003 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Rancardrancard.com | 2012 | Yes | 40 | — |
| iStreamPlanetistreamplanet.com | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |
| TOA Technologiestoatech.com | 2008 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Lucky Pailuckypai.com | 2006 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Savaari Car Rentalssavaari.com | 2012 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Winchannelwinchannel.net | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| UQ Communicationsuqwimax.jp | 2009 | No | 35 | — |
| RF Coderfcode.com | 2005 | Yes | 34 | — |
| AeroScoutaeroscout.com | 2007 | Yes | 33 | — |
| ChinaCachechinacache.com | 2005 | Yes | 33 | — |
| CableMatrix Technologies | 2004 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Crossing Automationcrossinginc.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Parallelsparallels.com | 2005 | No | 31 | — |
| Tejas Networks Indiatejasnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Vriti Infocomvriti.com | 2008 | Yes | 29 | — |
| PolicyBazaarpolicybazaar.com | 2011 | Yes | 28 | — |
| De Novode-novo.biz | 2010 | No | 28 | — |
| Enpirionenpirion.com | 2004 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Cloakwarecloakware.com | 2003 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Metabolimetaboli.co.uk | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Virtugo Softwareuxcomm.com | 2006 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Crossbeam Systemscrossbeamsystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Straatum Processwarestraatum.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Videonline Communicationsvideonline.com | 2007 | No | 26 | — |
| Safendsafend.com | 2005 | Yes | 26 | — |
| NeuStringneustring.com | 2009 | No | 25 | — |
| Trony Solartrony.com | 2008 | No | 22 | — |
| Akellaen.akella.com | 2005 | No | 22 | — |
| PagPoppagpop.com.br | 2012 | No | 21 | — |
| Verismo Networksverismonetworks.com | 2010 | No | 20 | — |
| Managed Objects | 2006 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Healthkarthealthkart.com | 2013 | No | 20 | — |
| Crossbow Technologiesxbow.com | 2005 | No | 19 | — |
| Adaptive Computingadaptivecomputing.com | 2010 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Rakutenglobal.rakuten.com | 2006 | No | 19 | — |
| BridgeCobridgeco.net | 2003 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Comat Technologiescomat.com | 2007 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Net Power Technologynetpowertech.com | 2008 | No | 17 | — |
| Vignanivignani.com | 2006 | No | 17 | — |
| ArcSoftarcsoft.com | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Mformation Technologiesmformation.com | 2004 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Voltaixvoltaix.com | 2008 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Tevet Process Control Technologiestevet-pct.com | 2007 | No | 15 | — |
| IP Fabricsipfabrics.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| Pulse Technologiespulseliving.com | 2009 | No | 15 | — |
| Transmensiontransmension.com | 2012 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Veebeamveebeam.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| DiBcomdibcom.net | 2005 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Altobridgealtobridge.com | 2011 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Crucialteccrucialtec.com | 2009 | No | 14 | — |
| Shanghai Media Groupsmg.cn | 2008 | No | 13 | — |
| Global Talent Trackgttconnect.com | 2009 | No | 13 | — |
| Conservus Internationalconservus.ae | 2009 | No | 13 | — |
| Platform Solutionsplatformsolutions.com | 2007 | No | 13 | — |
| Spectrawattspectrawatt.com | 2008 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Animocaanimoca.com | 2011 | Yes | 12 | — |
| BrainLABbrainlab.com | 2006 | No | 12 | — |
| Gudeng Precisiongudeng.com.tw | 2009 | No | 12 | — |
| Solarflare Communicationssolarflare.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| AVG Technologiesavg.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| Splendor Telecom UKsplendor.net | 2010 | No | 10 | — |
| TOBESOFTtobesoft.com | 2006 | No | 9 | — |
| Sudhir Srivastava Robotic Surgery Centre | 2011 | No | 9 | — |
| ZPowerzpowerbattery.com | 2004 | No | 9 | — |
| Videon Centralvideon-central.com | 2010 | No | 8 | — |
| Pixeonpixeon.com | 2011 | No | 8 | — |
| Exentexent.com | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| Wisairwisair.com | 2006 | Yes | 7 | — |
| Insyde Softwareinsyde.com | 2011 | No | 7 | — |
| Rock Flow Dynamicsrfdyn.com | 2010 | No | 7 | — |
| Beijing JoySee Technology | 2011 | No | 6 | — |
| Taifatechtaifatech.com | 2010 | No | 6 | — |
| NewAuto Video Technologychinadigitalvideo.com | 2008 | Yes | 6 | — |
| IndiaMARTindiamart.com | 2009 | No | 6 | — |
| Imagination Technologiesimgtec.com | 2006 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Jordan Valley Semiconductorsjvsemi.com | 2007 | No | 4 | — |
| V-cube Japanjp.vcube.com | 2009 | No | 4 | — |
| Powertech Technologypti.com.tw | 2007 | No | 3 | — |
| NetRetail Holdingnrholding.com | 2008 | Yes | 2 | — |
| Internet Mallmall.cz | 2008 | No | 2 | — |
| Allied Digital Servicesallieddigital.net | 2010 | No | 1 | — |
| NxtGen Data Center & Cloud Servicesnxtgen.co.in | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Legend Siliconlegendsilicon.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Photonic Materialsheraldscotland.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Lintes Technologieslintestech.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| CloudFXcloudfx.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Goldbelygoldbely.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Fileforcefileforce.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Guavas | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| FeedHenryfeedhenry.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Location Labslocationlabs.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Zinitixzinitix.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Exanetexanet.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| WebRadarwradar.com.br | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| DotProductdotproduct3d.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Perpetuuiti TechnoSoft Servicesptechnosoft.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Geofusiongeofusion.com.br | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Zamplus Technologyzamplus.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| WALTOPwaltop.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| AtomShockwave | 2001 | No | — | — |