Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IA Capital Group vs Kairos
5th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 18.8% (3 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 6.6%–43.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 10th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-22.6 pp
18.8% on 16 deals vs 41.4%
Vs median VC book
-29.7 pp
23.1% on 13 deals vs 52.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-44.5 pp
23.1% on 13 deals vs 67.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-45.7 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 65.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 13 of 16 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
20/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.5 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homeowners of America Holdinghoaic.com | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| RedVision Systemredvision.com | 2003 | No | 97 | Yes |
| Avalon Healthcare Holdings | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| E-Ductione-duction.com | 2004 | Yes | 59 | — |
| HedgeCohedgeco.net | 2008 | No | 55 | — |
| U.S. Fiduciaryusfiduciary.com | 2007 | No | 54 | — |
| Accruitaccruit.com | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| Loan Servicing Solutions | 2007 | No | 38 | — |
| Ceannateceannate.com | 2011 | No | 34 | — |
| Rev Worldwiderevworldwide.com | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Talbot Holdingstalbotuw.com | 2004 | No | 32 | — |
| Planet Paymentplanetpayment.com | 2005 | No | 31 | — |
| TIO Networkstionetworks.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| Xspandxspand.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Accupost Corporation | 2002 | No | — | — |
| S.A.C. Resac-re.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| GMI Ratingsgmiratings.com | 2002 | No | — | — |