Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Intersouth Partners vs Kairos
99th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.3% (26 of 32 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.7%–91.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 95th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+41.1 pp
81.3% on 32 deals vs 40.1%
Vs median VC book
+33.9 pp
83.3% on 30 deals vs 49.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+19.3 pp
83.3% on 30 deals vs 64.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+16.3 pp
85.7% on 21 deals vs 69.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 30 of 32 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
30
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 7.4% (2 of 27). 95% Wilson interval 2.1%–23.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-6.5 pp
7.4% on 27 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
32 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| siXissixisinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| KAI Pharmaceuticalskaipharmaceuticals.com | 2003 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Locaidloc-aid.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Vascular Pharmaceuticalsvascularpharma.com | 2012 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Zenosszenoss.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Viamet Pharmaceuticalsviamet.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Sempriussemprius.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Applied Genetics Technologies Corporationagtc.com | 2003 | No | 91 | — |
| 480 Biomedical480biomedical.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Defywiredefywire.com | 2003 | Yes | 89 | — |
| PeopleMatterpeoplematter.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Zenphthezoen.com | 2009 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Cutting Edge Informationcuttingedgeinfo.com | 2007 | No | 83 | — |
| 6fusion6fusion.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Invisticsinvistics.com | 2003 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Advanced Animal Diagnosticsadvancedanimaldiagnostics.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| TransEnterixtransenterix.com | 2009 | Yes | 70 | — |
| HexaTechhexatechinc.com | 2005 | No | 68 | — |
| Alimera Sciencesalimerasciences.com | 2004 | Yes | 67 | — |
| FlatBurgerflatburger.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Ziptronixziptronix.com | 2005 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Calibra Medical | 2008 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Proteon Therapeuticsproteontherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| TapRoot Systemstaprootsystems.com | 2004 | Yes | 52 | — |
| CallMinercallminer.com | 2004 | Yes | 52 | — |
| COVEGAcovega.com | 2003 | No | 47 | — |
| 6th Sense Analyticssixthsenseanalytics.com | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Biolex Therapeuticsbiolex.com | 2003 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Aldagenaldagen.com | 2006 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Digital Safety Technologiesdigitalsafetytech.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |
| Athenixathenixcorp.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Overture Networksoverturenetworks.com | 2002 | No | — | — |