Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
InterWest Partners vs Kairos
82nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.0% (35 of 53 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.6%–77.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 71st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.5 pp
66.0% on 53 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
+13.0 pp
65.4% on 52 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.3 pp
65.4% on 52 deals vs 67.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.2 pp
64.4% on 45 deals vs 66.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 52 of 53 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
52
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
44/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (11 of 44). 95% Wilson interval 14.6%–39.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.9 pp
25.0% on 44 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
53 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAI Pharmaceuticalskaipharmaceuticals.com | 2003 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| SpectraLinearspectralinear.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| AkaRx | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Achates Powerachatespower.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Nuventixnuventix.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Cloud9cloud9analytics.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Quantancequantance.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Tapjoytapjoy.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Gynesonicsgynesonics.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| RedShift Systemsredshiftsystems.com | 2006 | No | 95 | — |
| Marketomarketo.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Brand.netbrand.net | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Doximitydoximity.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Applied Genetics Technologies Corporationagtc.com | 2003 | No | 91 | — |
| HireArthireart.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Alt12 Appsalt12.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Empowered Careersempoweredu.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Famo.usfamo.us | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Convey Computerconveycomputer.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| GAIN Fitnessgainfitness.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Exalt Communicationsexaltcom.com | 2009 | No | 82 | — |
| LensX Laserslensxlasers.com | 2009 | No | 81 | — |
| Pivot3pivot3.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Ample Communicationsamplepk.net | 2004 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Ribbonribbon.co | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Quickshift | 2005 | No | 79 | — |
| AppMeshappme.sh | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| InVisage Technologiesinvisage.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Carbylan Therapeuticscarbylan.com | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| Gear6gear6.com | 2006 | Yes | 73 | — |
| NovusEdgenovusedge.com | 2006 | No | 63 | — |
| Fluidigmfluidigm.com | 2004 | No | 58 | — |
| Restoration Roboticsrestorationrobotics.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| NexPlanarnexplanar.com | 2008 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Labrys Biologics | 2012 | No | 49 | — |
| Follicafollicabio.com | 2008 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Amplimmuneamplimmune.com | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| PrimeraDx (Primera Biosystems)primeradx.com | 2008 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Varoliivarolii.com | 2011 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Avaakavaak.com | 2008 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Canvacanva.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Paracor Medicalparacormedical.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| Staccato Communicationsstaccatocommunications.com | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| kajeetkajeet.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Cape Clear Software | 2006 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Open Siliconopen-silicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| T-RAM Semiconductort-ram.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Vendavovendavo.com | 2004 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Platform Solutionsplatformsolutions.com | 2007 | No | 13 | — |
| Transcept Pharmaceuticalstransoral.com | 2007 | No | 9 | — |
| MacroGenicsmacrogenics.com | 2006 | No | 7 | — |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipmentamec-inc.com | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Piggybackrpiggybackr.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Epocratesepocrates.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |