Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Inventages Venture Capital Investment Inc. vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 10.0% (1 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 1.8%–40.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-34.3 pp
10.0% on 10 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
-44.6 pp
10.0% on 10 deals vs 54.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-59.2 pp
10.0% on 10 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-59.1 pp
10.0% on 10 deals vs 69.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.0 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNagednage.nl | 2005 | No | 93 | — |
| Food Quality Sensor Internationalfqsinternational.com | 2007 | No | 66 | — |
| CMP Therapeuticscmptherapeutics.com | 2006 | No | 63 | — |
| Tanfield Direct Ltd.tanfielddirect.co.uk | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| Shield Therapeuticsshieldtherapeutics.com | 2011 | No | 53 | — |
| Technologie BiolActisbiolactis.com | 2006 | No | 45 | — |
| Cavis microcapscavis-microcaps.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| Opsonaopsona.com | 2009 | No | 34 | — |
| Phosphate Therapeuticsshieldtherapeutics.com | 2012 | No | 33 | — |
| MooBellamoobella.com | 2007 | Yes | 24 | — |