Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Inventus Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 90.9% (10 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 62.3%–98.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+44.3 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 46.6%
Vs median VC book
+30.5 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 60.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+14.8 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 76.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+15.3 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 75.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.3 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENWIgenwi.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Credit Sesamecreditsesame.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Vizuryvizury.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Spotzotspotzot.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Poshmarkposhmark.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Power2SMEpower2sme.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Dhinganadhingana.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| FundsIndiafundsindia.com | 2010 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Cbazaar.comcbazaar.in | 2012 | Yes | 43 | — |
| iSitesisites.us | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| Espresso Logicespressologic.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| eDreams Edusoftedreamssoftware.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |