Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Investor Growth Capital vs Kairos
30th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (11 of 22 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.7%–69.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 42nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.6 pp
50.0% on 22 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
-1.8 pp
50.0% on 22 deals vs 51.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.2 pp
50.0% on 22 deals vs 66.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-22.1 pp
45.0% on 20 deals vs 67.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
22
Mean model percentile
44
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 4.8% (1 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 0.8%–22.7%.
Vs exit base rate
-9.4 pp
4.8% on 21 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
22 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnum Semiconductormagnumsemi.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| TearSciencetearscience.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Solstice Neurosciencessolsticeneuro.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Azaire Networksazairenet.com | 2006 | No | 71 | — |
| Tobii ABtobii.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Galil Medicalgalil-medical.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Ruckus Wirelessruckuswireless.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| ReCellularrecellular.com | 2008 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Intuity Medicalintuitymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Paratekparatek.com | 2004 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Atricaatrica.com | 2003 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Greenway Medical Technologiesgreenwaymedical.com | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| ForeSeeforesee.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| ePAC Technologiesepac.com | 2006 | No | 33 | — |
| ChinaCachechinacache.com | 2005 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Vendavenda.com | 2006 | Yes | 28 | — |
| PocketMobilepocketmobile.se | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Mindjetmindjet.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| White Rock Networkswhiterock.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| EPAC Software Technologiesepacst.com | 2008 | No | 12 | — |
| Visiprisevisiprise.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |
| Cambio+ Healthcare Systemscambio.se | 2006 | No | 6 | — |