Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IQ Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.3 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+1.1 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 54.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.4 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 71.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.8 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 66.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
38
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (1 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–47.1%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.4 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| miiCardmiicard.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Rosslyn Analyticsrosslynanalytics.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Neulneul.com | 2011 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Novacta Biosystemsnovactabio.com | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Camrivoxcamrivox.com | 2006 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Grapeshotgrapeshot.com | 2009 | No | 17 | — |
| Chameleon BioSurfaceschameleonbio.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| Dezineforcedezineforce.com | 2010 | No | 12 | — |
| IM-Senseim-sense.com | 2008 | No | 10 | — |