Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Iris Capital vs Kairos
9th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 31.3% (5 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 14.2%–55.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 15th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-13.7 pp
31.3% on 16 deals vs 45.0%
Vs median VC book
-25.1 pp
31.3% on 16 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-40.8 pp
31.3% on 16 deals vs 72.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-41.2 pp
26.7% on 15 deals vs 67.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
43
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.8 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolionoliosoft.com | 2008 | No | 86 | — |
| MedicAnimal.commedicanimal.com | 2010 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Alyotechalyotech.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Adomikadomik.com | 2013 | No | 59 | — |
| Let it Wave | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| Variopticvarioptic.com | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| OpenTrustopentrust.com | 2005 | No | 46 | — |
| Neocase Softwareneocasesoftware.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Oodriveoodrive.com | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| Domain Investdomaininvest.lu | 2010 | No | 37 | — |
| Xcaliaxcalia.com | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| YouScribeyouscribe.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |
| Indium Software Inc.indiumsoft.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| MCI Group Holdingmci-group.com | 2011 | No | 13 | — |
| Datamarsdatamars.com | 2006 | No | 11 | — |
| Netatmonetatmo.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| BuyBoxbuybox.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| AppGratisappgratis.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |