Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Iroquois Capital vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

-30.9 pp

14.3% on 7 deals vs 45.2%

Vs median VC book

-42.5 pp

14.3% on 7 deals vs 56.8%

Vs top-quartile VC

-56.4 pp

14.3% on 7 deals vs 70.7%

Vs Y Combinator

-53.9 pp

14.3% on 7 deals vs 68.2%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Biomodabiomoda.com	2010	No	85	—
Pharmacopeiapharmacopeia.com	2005	No	61	—
Senesco Technologiessenesco.com	2010	No	53	—
Agenusagenusbio.com	2009	No	50	—
CEL-SCIcel-sci.com	2009	No	46	—
BravoSolutionbravosolution.com	2005	Yes	25	—
ACE*COMMacecomm.com	2007	No	7	—