Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Israel Cleantech Ventures (ICV) vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.5 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 45.5%
Vs median VC book
-17.0 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 57.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-33.5 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 73.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-20.1 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 60.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (1 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–47.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.3 pp
12.5% on 8 deals vs 11.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRX Polymersfrxpolymers.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Pythagoras Solarpythagoras-solar.com | 2008 | No | 91 | — |
| BrightView Systemsbrightview-sys.com | 2009 | No | 81 | — |
| Aqwiseaqwise.com | 2008 | No | 72 | — |
| Panoramic Powerpanpwr.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| CellEracellera.biz | 2008 | No | 45 | — |
| Emefcyemefcy.com | 2011 | No | 39 | — |
| Niti Surgical Solutionsnitisurgical.com | 2009 | No | 29 | — |
| Metrolightmetrolight.com | 2007 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Scodixscodix.com | 2013 | Yes | 19 | — |