Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Itochu Technology Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-4.0 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 48.5%
Vs median VC book
-17.0 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 61.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-31.9 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 76.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-23.7 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 68.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (2 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 11.8%–76.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+26.7 pp
40.0% on 5 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thuuz Sportsthuuz.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Tonchidottonchidot.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| DoubleRecalldoublerecall.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| Spotlightsmapo.jp | 2012 | No | 70 | — |
| Encirq Corporationencirq.com | 2006 | No | 61 | — |
| Advanced Chip Express | 2007 | No | 50 | — |
| Link_A_Media Deviceslinkamedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Locondo.jplocondo.jp | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Schooschoo.jp | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Muse & Comuseco.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |