Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Jafco Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 90.0% (9 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.6%–98.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+46.2 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 43.8%
Vs median VC book
+36.2 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 53.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+21.7 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 68.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+19.7 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 70.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
42
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 22.2% (2 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 6.3%–54.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.7 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artisan Pharmaartisanpharma.net | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| RedSeal, Inc.redseal.co | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Mimosa Systemsmimosasystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| gumigu3.co.jp | 2011 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Devicescapedevicescape.com | 2005 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Cortina Systemscortina-systems.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Conformia Softwareconformia.com | 2006 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Elixir Pharmaceuticalselixirpharm.com | 2006 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Awarepointawarepoint.com | 2010 | Yes | 16 | — |
| MarketLivemarketlive.com | 2008 | No | 5 | — |
| Lenetlenet.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |