Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Javelin Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (6 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.4%–74.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.4 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 48.6%
Vs median VC book
-11.7 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 61.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-26.7 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 76.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.4 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 71.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (2 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 11.8%–76.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.4 pp
40.0% on 5 deals vs 10.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AdRocketadrocket.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| Skytreeskytree.net | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Linqialinqia.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| Spikes Securityspikes.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| MAGNIFImagnifi.fm | 2013 | No | 88 | — |
| Famo.usfamo.us | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Sociable Labssociablelabs.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Coterie, Inc.coterie.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| PowerCloud Systemspowercloudsystems.com | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Netpulsenetpulse.com | 2009 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Plug.djplug.dj | 2013 | No | 49 | — |
| GET IT Mobilegetitmobile.com | 2011 | No | 39 | — |
| Famous Industries | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Telerivettelerivet.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Uncovetuncovet.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |