Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Jerusalem Venture Partners (JVP) vs Kairos
28th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (15 of 30 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 33.2%–66.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 38th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.8 pp
50.0% on 30 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
-9.2 pp
46.2% on 26 deals vs 55.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.8 pp
46.2% on 26 deals vs 69.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-26.9 pp
45.8% on 24 deals vs 72.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 26 of 30 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
26
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (4 of 24). 95% Wilson interval 6.7%–35.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.8 pp
16.7% on 24 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
30 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altair Semiconductoraltair-semi.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Siano Mobile Siliconsiano-ms.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Funtactixfuntactix.com | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| Double Fusiondoublefusion.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| XtremIOxtremio.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Navajo Systemsnavajosystems.com | 2009 | No | 82 | — |
| NativeFlownativeflow.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Apparentapparent.me | 2011 | No | 66 | — |
| uiuwiser-me.com | 2012 | No | 66 | — |
| Playcast Mediaplaycast-media.com | 2011 | No | 66 | — |
| IgnitAdignitad.com | 2010 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Koviokovio.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Emergentemergent.sh | 2004 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Moondomoondo.com | 2007 | No | 57 | — |
| Forterra Systemsforterrainc.com | 2009 | No | 56 | — |
| CrossReadercrossreader.com | 2011 | No | 50 | — |
| 2Peer (Qlipso)qlipso.com | 2007 | No | 43 | — |
| Correlorcorrelor.com | 2012 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Mempilemempile.com | 2005 | No | 25 | — |
| Eposepos-ps.com | 2005 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Minicom Digital Signageminicomdigitalsignage.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Reef Point Systemsreefpoint.com | 2005 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Edenbase | 2006 | No | 9 | — |
| CyOpticscyoptics.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |
| Earnixearnix.com | 2005 | Yes | 6 | — |
| QlikTechqlikview.com | 2004 | No | 3 | — |
| Celltick Technologiescelltick.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Sphera Corporation | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| BridgeWave Communicationsbridgewave.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Sepatonsepaton.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |