Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
JK&B Capital vs Kairos
12th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (6 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 16.3%–56.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 20th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-8.5 pp
33.3% on 18 deals vs 41.8%
Vs median VC book
-13.6 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 51.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.6 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 65.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-47.5 pp
23.1% on 13 deals vs 70.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 16 of 18 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.3% (5 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 14.2%–55.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+16.1 pp
31.3% on 16 deals vs 15.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baynotebaynote.com | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Scalent Systemsscalent.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Treemo Labstreemolabs.com | 2007 | No | 84 | — |
| SnapTellsnaptell.com | 2007 | No | 83 | — |
| Intacctintacct.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Pharma Two Bpharma2b.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| S.E.A. Medical Systemsseamedical.com | 2012 | No | 62 | — |
| Reactivity | 2006 | No | 60 | — |
| Cenziccenzic.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| ColdSparkcoldspark.com | 2006 | No | 48 | — |
| Instantisinstantis.com | 2006 | No | 44 | — |
| SiCortexsicortex.com | 2004 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Atricaatrica.com | 2003 | Yes | 40 | — |
| ClearPoint Metricsclearpointmetrics.com | 2005 | No | 35 | — |
| CounterStormcounterstorm.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| Nanochipnanochip.com | 2004 | Yes | 9 | — |
| Cranite Systems | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Novarranovarra.com | 2001 | No | — | — |