Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
JMI Equity vs Kairos
23rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 45.8% (11 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 27.9%–64.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 34th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.6 pp
45.8% on 24 deals vs 43.3%
Vs median VC book
-6.6 pp
45.8% on 24 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.9 pp
45.8% on 24 deals vs 67.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-23.3 pp
43.5% on 23 deals vs 66.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
41
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.8% (7 of 22). 95% Wilson interval 16.4%–52.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.6 pp
31.8% on 22 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AppNetaappneta.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Axedaaxeda.com | 2009 | No | 76 | — |
| Network Intelligence | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| BrightLinebrightline.tv | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Eloquaeloqua.com | 2006 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Aptelaaptela.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Undertoneundertone.com | 2008 | No | 52 | — |
| Granicusgranicus.com | 2008 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Nimsoftnimsoft.com | 2007 | Yes | 48 | — |
| BigMachinesbigmachines.com | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| ClickSquaredclicksquared.com | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Harmony Information Systemsharmonyis.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| xMattersxmatters.com | 2007 | No | 36 | — |
| Applimationapplimation.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| Capsule Techcapsuletech.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |
| Studer Groupstudergroup.com | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| Empathicaempathica.com | 2006 | No | 29 | — |
| QuIC Financial Technologiesquic.com | 2006 | No | 28 | — |
| BEZ Systemsbez.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Autotaskautotask.com | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| Managed Objects | 2006 | Yes | 20 | — |
| CouponCabinaskforoffer.com | 2011 | No | 16 | — |
| Intellitacticsintellitactics.com | 2003 | Yes | 11 | — |
| DriveCamdrivecam.com | 2005 | Yes | 11 | — |