Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kapor Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 78.6% (11 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.4%–92.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+30.1 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 48.4%
Vs median VC book
+15.7 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 62.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.4 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 79.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+4.5 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 74.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PayNearMepaynearme.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Zoobeanzoobean.com | 2013 | Yes | 94 | — |
| The Extraordinariesbeextra.org | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| Modriamodria.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Visual.lyvisual.ly | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Sunglasssunglass.io | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Saygentsaygent.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Chromatikchromatik.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Fidelisfideliseducation.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Newselanewsela.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Gojeegojee.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Piazzapiazza.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Mailboxmailboxapp.com | 2011 | No | 49 | — |
| OKpandaokpanda.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |